Global emissions may exceed targets as 1.5°c goal remains distant

While the shift to renewables accelerates, Rystad noted that oil and gas will remain resilient in the near term.

Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to peak around 2026 before beginning a gradual decline, driven by rapid growth in renewable energy and the expanding adoption of electric vehicles, according to Rystad Energy’s Global Energy Scenarios 2025 report.

However, the consultancy warns that current national climate pledges remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°c target.

Rystad’s analysis describes the world entering a “new energy era” dominated by clean electricity and broad electrification.

Its baseline “house view” suggests the planet is on track for a 1.9°c warming pathway by 2040, supported by record renewable capacity additions.

Wind and solar installations in 2024–2025 are expected to exceed 700 gigawatts, with global solar capacity rising from 1,868 GW in 2024 to 2,412 GW in 2025.

The report highlighted three key priorities for the transition: cleaning up and expanding the power sector, electrifying transport and industry, and tackling residual fossil-fuel emissions through carbon capture and low-carbon fuels.

Whilst the shift to renewables accelerates, Rystad noted that oil and gas will remain resilient in the near term. Oil demand is forecast to peak in the early 2030s, and gas growth is expected to slow later this decade.

Low-carbon investment already exceeds US$900b annually, compared with US$735b for oil and gas, and is projected to account for 46% of global energy investment by 2030, according to Rystad.