ASEAN sustainable aviation fuel supply to bag 8.5 million bpd by 2050

Indonesia and Philippines to become net exporters, Japan and Singapore as top import markets.

ASEAN economies could generate as much as 8.5 million barrels per day of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2050, according to GHD’s ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report.

The report provided a regional supply chain assessment for 2030, 2040, and 2050, examining potential SAF demand and supply scenarios across Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam

Import markets, including Japan, Singapore, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), were also assessed.  

The regional SAF supply potential significantly outpaces projected demand, GHD said in its report.

Based on potential uptake of SAF blend rates, the forecast SAF demand in ASEAN was projected to grow sharply from 15,000 bpd in 2030, to over 700,000 bpd by 2050.

Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand were expected to be the largest demand centres in the region.

The potential SAF supply from agricultural and sustainable forestry biomass is projected to rise from approximately 7.5 million bpd in 2030 to reach 8.5 million bpd in 2050.

All ASEAN countries examined could potentially have sufficient capacity to position themselves as net SAF exporters, GHD found.  

Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand have the most abundant feedstock to support SAF production, it added. Southeast Asia’s key SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste, and forestry residues.

By 2040, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam could become net exporters, whilst GHD expects Japan, Singapore, the and Republic of Korea to be strong SAF importers.

Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines may have the most cost-efficient distribution.

Boeing led the research approval of the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway in 2011, which is the most prevalent technology adopted for SAF production.

The report was developed by GHD with support from Global Affairs Canada from the Canadian Trade and Investment Facility for Development (CTIF), Cowater International (Cowater), Institute of Public Administrators of Canada (IPAC), and Global Affairs Canada, with Boeing as the knowledge partner, and supporting the ASEAN Secretariat.