China risks missing 2025 climate goal amid coal dependency

Carbon emissions were flat YoY in Q3 2025, continuing a trend of flat or falling emissions since March 2024. 

China is on track to miss its 2020–2025 carbon intensity target, according to a new analysis by Carbon Brief, signalling that steeper emissions reductions will be needed to stay aligned with its broader 2030 carbon peak goal.

Whilst the country is adding renewable energy at record levels, including 240 GW of solar and 61 GW of wind in the first nine months of 2025, progress is offset by uneven sector performance and an ongoing reliance on fossil fuels.

The report highlighted mixed signals in China’s energy transition. A mid-year pricing reform briefly slowed the pace of new wind and solar installations, but total additions for 2025 are still on track to surpass previous records.

Industry groups now project capacity growth beyond the pace implied by China’s 2035 targets, suggesting momentum remains strong despite policy headwinds.

At the same time, approximately 230 GW of coal-fired capacity remains under construction. As renewable generation rises, coal plant utilisation rates are falling, which could prompt a policy rethink in the near term.

Carbon emissions were flat YoY in Q3 2025, continuing a trend of flat or falling emissions since March 2024. Notably, September emissions were down around 3% from a year earlier, increasing the likelihood of a full-year decline.

However, Carbon Brief cautioned that 2025 remains finely balanced, with outcomes depending on how different sectors perform in the final quarter.

One major development has been the decoupling of power-sector emissions from electricity demand. In Q3, electricity demand grew 6.1%, but power-related CO₂ emissions remained flat.

This was driven by rapid growth in solar (+46%) and wind (+11%), which together accounted for nearly 90% of the increase in power demand, along with smaller contributions from hydro and nuclear sources.

Sector-level dynamics were mixed. Emissions from transport oil use fell 5%, cement dropped 7%, and metals declined 1% in Q3.

However, this was partially offset by a 10% rise in oil use outside transport, an increase in chemical-industry emissions, and a 3% uptick in natural gas demand, with gas-fired power demand alone rising 9%.

Looking ahead, Carbon Brief identified Q4 as the key swing factor for whether China’s full-year emissions rise or fall.