Indonesia’s coal emissions peak delayed by 7 years under new plan

Experts warn that the country’s reliance on coal contradicts global climate goals.

Indonesia’s latest electricity master plan is delaying the country’s emissions peak until 2037—seven years later than the Low Carbon Scenario recommends—while expanding coal generation. Experts argue that this shift threatens Indonesia’s ability to meet global climate targets and raises financial risks for power producers.

"Under the Low Carbon Scenario, unabated coal generation should peak at 435 TWh in 2030 and decline to 180 TWh by 2050. However, the electricity master plan projects a later peak at 482 TWh in 2037, with a slower decline to 290 TWh by 2050," said Dody Setiawan, Senior Climate and Energy Analyst at Ember.

The government’s approach has shifted in recent years, incorporating ambitious economic growth targets. Katherine Hasan, Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), noted that Indonesia’s strategy now includes measures such as biomass co-firing, ammonia retrofitting, and green hydrogen production. However, she cautioned that these efforts may not be sufficient to curb emissions in line with international climate commitments.

"There are many assumptions that differ in the recently released National Electricity Plan, including economic growth projections of up to 7% and the inclusion of captive power generation to support heavy industries for the first time. While these changes may support economic expansion, they could also result in higher emissions and delay Indonesia’s clean energy transition," Hasan said.

To bring Indonesia’s energy strategy in line with climate goals, experts recommend accelerating renewable energy deployment and enforcing stricter emissions standards.

"Planned renewable projects in PLN’s business plan and JETP CIPP documents must be implemented on schedule, or else future demand will be met again by coal," Setiawan said. "We also need to replace unallocated captive projects with renewables and apply uniform emissions standards for both grid-connected and captive coal."

Hasan emphasised that Indonesia must take bolder action in reducing fossil fuel dependency. "We should no longer delay grid decarbonisation. The benefits are too high, and we must aim higher by looking at how clean technologies are being rapidly deployed globally," she said. "To achieve Indonesia’s Golden 2045 vision, we must invest in the future now, focusing entirely on renewables and positioning ourselves in the global clean energy supply chain."